The dollar in Russia for 2020
The ever-growing global financial crisis, the difficulties in the domestic and foreign policies of the leading economies of the world, the cardinal and very polar change in the environmental, humanitarian and consumer paradigms cannot leave anyone indifferent on this planet. At least, people who think, care about their well-being and the future of their children - for sure.
For obvious reasons, in light of all this, the immediate as well as long-term forecasts for the dollar exchange rate are surely interesting - the pillars of the Bretton Woods actual monetary system of the world, the main and universal unit of account in international relations, and, no matter how our authorities would like the opposite, the main financial reference point for our fellow citizens.
Agree, wondering how much one or another new friend earns, how much is the price of apartments on the market or a new car model, how much a ticket to a foreign resort costs, we invariably translate prices in rubles into dollars. Therefore, questions of the expected exchange rate of this currency will always remain in the cohort of urgent and urgent.
The financial situation in the United States itself
For obvious reasons, the state of the country's economy, its political decisions, and above all external ones, its image directly affect the exchange rate. Experts believe that the United States is now living the last relatively quiet and breathtaking months before a very protracted recession.
This is not surprising, because quotes for other strong convertible units, for example, the euro and the yen, have been growing recently, as if by leaps and bounds, sensitively responding to the very flexible policy of the Fed, as well as the growing position of the United States as a state, which in the eyes own citizens in the world as a whole.
At the same time, we all understand that the dollar is precisely the currency with which no surprises can be expected: it "works out" a clear cycle that naturally corresponds to the scheme of investment funds, trading, distribution of funds, and the like, for a profitable country and its inhabitants.
On the nose - an exacerbation of the budget deficit due to the consequences of active investments in the national economy, the frequent refusal to disperse production capacities around the world in favor of its territory, preferential tax policies and other hard reforms of the Trump cabinet. Which have very useful and correct prospects for a country as large as such a business field, but they do not promise to be sweet and pleasant at any given time.
Again, the dollar was overestimated for too long, so it is logical that in the coming years it will try to regain its natural position, since such a policy cannot be carried out without harm. And at the same time they come to a double deficit due to the growing public debt. In general, it is expected that the negative balance will be at the level of a trillion, if not more.
Therefore, now, the less the dollar will cost, the, of course, is more profitable for the country. Real indicators of GDP in the country are 1.8-2% at a given moment in time. And the fact that the United States shows almost 4 - it is not given in vain and will necessarily require its rollback, whatever one may say.
Specific figures of the planned dollar exchange rate
Reputable US investment funds suggested that in 2020 the country will enter with a rate less than now by 5%. This is not so critical to sound the alarm, but also very inspiring for the economies of other countries. In particular, the euro is already rubbing its hands pretty much, which is finally coming out of a protracted crisis and is preparing to rob the dollar of the most favorable currency.
In Germany, for example, at the level of Deutche Bank functionaries, they are talking about a 7% increase over 2020 in relation to the American money of their currency. After calculating, the yen is going to execute the pas de deux by 11% ...
True, the first half of the year, as experts expect, will become peak in the process of depreciation. However, behind it, which, by the way, completely fits into the canonical graphs of the behavior of the dollar, there will come a period of gradual recovery. Of course, it’s not as aggressive as it was recently. But nonetheless.
The dollar against the euro in 2020
Two economic hegemons in 2020 will enter with a ratio of approximately 1: 1.102 not in favor of the dollar. Indeed, over the past year, the dollar at first quite significantly fell to 1.128 percentage points, then slightly corrected, strengthening to 1.063, and then again lost ground a bit.
At the beginning of next year, which naturally will continue to fall to $ 1,177 for one euro at its end. Moreover, the maximum growth will be observed somewhere again in August - about 1.241. But, not for long, so who cares, manage to reformat the assets.
In total, the financiers of European banks believe that in 2020 the dollar will surrender 1.4% of its value. For comparison, although the final statistics are still being collected, it is now clear that for 2019 it will even show a positive growth of 5.1%.
The dollar against the ruble in 2020
Already now, one can almost with absolute certainty say that on average in 2019 the ruble “will not break through” the ceiling of the mark 70. That is, if we entered it from 65 - 67 rubles per dollar, and on average for a year this gave only 63.2, then in the coming year the indicators will be even more pleasant: 63.8 - 64.
It is with a rate not exceeding 64 rubles per dollar that Russia will enter 2021, given seasonal fluctuations. True, this is not because the fall of the ruble more or less stabilized and slowed down significantly. But just because the dollar itself will not feel as comfortable this year as it was before.
The long-term program of the Russian government takes into account the annual small and very smooth depreciation of the ruble against the dollar - this is how they will try to keep it, according to the new policy of the Central Bank. And they will be 0.20-0.70 rubles each. over a period. That is, after only five years, we will approach the dangerous level of 70 rubles. However, no one excludes one-time leaps that will be sudden, but as short-lived as before.
True, this scenario does not take into account a serious drop in energy prices, on which the dollar depends the least.