Russia's GDP in 2020
After a temporary decline, Russia's GDP in 2020 will rise to two percent. Experts believe that a number of factors - an increase in the VAT rate, a change in the key rate, will all affect the slowdown, but in the end they will give an impetus that will lead to growth next year.
What will be the growth of Russia's GDP in the coming years
Two percent - this is how the GDP growth of the Russian Federation in the Ministry of Economy was estimated. development in 2018. The previous forecast estimated performance at 1.8%. According to the minister, the country has managed to reach a stable level over the past few years.
Preliminary estimates of economic growth have changed every month. In November, GDP was estimated at 1.8%, and at the end of December - 1.9% in annual terms. This year is expected to decline to 1.3%. The head of the department associates this with an increase in the VAT rate and a slowdown in economic growth worldwide.
Forecast adjustment and the place of Russia in the world ranking
According to previous forecasts of analysts and the department itself, the results of the year exceeded expectations. Thus, the forecast of a number of economists interviewed by Bloomberg came down to economic growth of 1.7%. The ministry believed that the indicators will reach 1.8%. However, now we can confidently declare two percent.
“The assessment of growth rates for the year was significantly affected by the revision of the construction statistics by Rosstat over the past two years,” the Ministry of Economic Development said.
Thus, the data provided by the agency indicate an increase in the volume of construction work by 5.3 percent.
Important! In 2017, GDP at purchasing power parity was estimated at $ 4,008 billion in dollars (sixth in the world). In nominal terms - $ 1527 billion, Russia ranked twelfth in the world.
Ministry of Economic Development - what influenced the forecast correction
However, analysts note the volatility of the dynamics of construction. The main factor they call the inability to evenly evaluate the volumes of specials. facilities that, unlike the housing sector, are difficult to control. Such large-scale construction projects as the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, sports facilities being built to the mundial and the bridge connecting the mainland to the Crimean peninsula are cited as an example. But last year, only the Power of Siberia was being actively built. Thus, the indicators of 2018 should be, given the volumes, lower than in the year before last. But, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, industry also played a role in the growth of the economy. The performance of this sector is twice the result of 2017.
Analysts forecast GDP growth
Indicators fell in agriculture, trade and the services sector. Experts also expect slowdown in economic growth and in connection with an increase in the VAT rate. But as for the coming years, the forecast for GDP growth looks optimistic. Already next year, analysts expect an increase of up to two percent, and then - up to 3%. However, some experts believe that after a temporary slowdown, the pace will accelerate to 2.5%. It is noted that this will be facilitated by the large-scale construction of infrastructure planned in the coming years, as well as an increase in government spending on investments.
As for foreign specialists, the World Bank believes that in the period until 2021 the Russian economy will grow to 1.8%.
Factors affecting the economy - expert opinion
Among the factors that can have a positive impact on the domestic economy, experts name the following:
- an increase in the key rate of the CBR will allow inflation to take control;
- an increase in the VAT rate will attract investment in human capital.
However, the results of these events can only be seen in the next, 2020. For the most part, the opinion of experts comes down to an indicator of 1.3% this year.
Rosstat GDP data for the last two years:
|Period||Current prices in rubles, in billion|
|I quarter 2017||20549,8|
|II quarter 2017||22035,1|
|III quarter 2017||23948,8|
|IV quarter 2017||25503,4|
|I quarter 2017||22239,4|
|II quarter 2017||24846,6|
|III quarter 2017||27007,2|
According to information on the website of the department, the data for 2017 will be revised in the spring of 2019.
Which industries influenced forecast adjustments
A year ago, forecasts regarding the growth rate of the domestic economy came down to 2.1%. But then this figure was adjusted twice. In the summer, when there was information about a change in the VAT rate and after the announcement of the early start of the pension reform, the forecast was lowered to 1.9%. Then, in August they reduced it to 1.8%, explaining this by the volatility observed in the market and anti-Russian sanctions. Therefore, the final indicator of two percent seems surprising.
Rosstat explained that they adjusted the data on the construction industry and, as it turned out, a real boom took place in the country. If before that the expected increase was only 0.5%, then after the adjustment it turned out that the indicators in this area increased by 5.3%. It is noted that there have been no such indicators since 2008. Also now on the official website of the department it is indicated that quarterly data for 2015-2017 will be revised, and relevant information will appear in March this year.
Latest news about changes in total percentages
Speaking about the leap in the construction industry, experts note that the Federal State Statistics Service did not explain which categories provided it. It is indicated that there is a decline in the housing sector, and data on commercial construction or infrastructure development also cannot boast of sharp growth.
According to the latest news, the Ministry of Construction believes that such data is due to the completion of the construction of a bridge in the Crimea and a number of facilities that were introduced on the eve of the World Cup. The construction of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, which continues this year, also played a role. Officials also refer to the updated data provided by enterprises, however, experts note that such a significant gap has never been noted between intermediate and final indicators.
Analysts point to the fact that the growth was recorded almost immediately after the change of leadership of the statistical department. The head who left in December was replaced by the director of the department of the Ministry of Economic Development, who promised to reform the system. Immediately after that, the Federal State Statistics Service announced changes in GDP for 2017 from one and a half to 1.6%, and the economic downturn in 2016 was replaced by an increase of 0.3 percent. The agency explained these changes in percentage using a different methodology for assessing industries.